Take a trade war with China, mix in frosty economic relations with Canada and Europe, add in Federal Reserve rate hikes and here’s what you get: A recession by 2020.
So says Ronald Temple, head of US equity for Lazard Asset Management.
He told CNN Business that President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies may lead to a deep slowdown in the economy, particularly because these trade skirmishes coincide with rising interest rates.
A recession in the near-term is not inevitable, but the risk of one by 2020 has increased substantially in the past few months, Temple said. "Take trade wars off the table and that significantly reduces the risk of recession."
But it’s likely that the United States is overestimating how much China needs to import from America, he said.
China has more options than it once did, and the Trump administration’s hardline stance makes a prolonged stalemate more likely.
The days where we could have a trade agreement where China just buys more US stuff are probably behind us, he said. "It’s difficult to find how China and the United States come to a common middle ground on trade."
Temple said that the United States -- as well as the rest of the world for that matter -- do have legitimate grievances with China, particularly when it comes to China’s intellectual property theft and stringent restrictions on foreign companies doing business there.
