The market is flat to down slightly during calendar year 2018, but it’s still high based on historic P/E ratios. I don’t see a structural reason that it should shoot up.
Trump’s tariffs (and the retaliation to them) are going to harm both imports and exports and cause a drag on the economy by artificially increasing prices on a number of goods. This will hurt GDP growth and jobs as companies move production out of the US to avoid the tariffs.
Real wage growth over the last 12 months is down about a quarter of a percent, meaning that there’s no income increases to drive consumer purchasing. Without demand increases, companies will neither increase production nor hire more workers.
More detail: www.fs-hj.com.cn
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